At time 21:53 in the part two video, you said: "There was no way to look at all the excess deaths in the United States relative to what their baseline supposedly was, and have that not include the drug overdoses." However I demonstrated one obvious way to do it here: sars2.net/rootclaim.html#Table_of_excess_deaths_by_cause. I first calculated excess deaths from all causes relative to the pre-COVID trend, and then I subtracted excess deaths with underlying cause drug overdose relative to the pre-COVID trend. Drug deaths accounted for about 3% of all excess deaths in 2020, 4% in 2021, and 6% in 2022.
You have also been saying that the only reason why the US life expectancy has gone down since 2020 are deaths from drug overdoses. However based on my calculation the US life expectancy dropped for about 2.4 years between 2019 and 2021, but drug overdose deaths accounted for only about 12% of the reduction in life expectancy: sars2.net/nopandemic2.html#Housatonic_Effect_of_drug_overdose_deaths_on_US_life_expectancy_since_2020. The way I calculated the percentage accounted by drug overdose deaths was that I replaced the number of drug overdose deaths for each age in 2021 with the number of deaths for the same age in 2019.
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In the part two video you also brought up the paper from 2019 by Sina Bavari and Baric's postdoc student Alison Totura: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30849247/. However I think you have been mischaracterizing the paper, because in another video where you discussed the paper in more detail, you said: "We should see that Ralph Baric's last postdoc student actually co-authored a document called 'Broad-spectrum coronavirus antiviral drug discovery', which was published in early 2019, which actually says very specifically that GS-5734 from Gilead - Remdesivir - is the most likely thing to work against a novel coronavirus that causes a global pandemic spilling out of Asia, probably China via a wet market after jumping off of a bat or camel. This document is the smoking gun of the entire pandemic." [https://www.bitchute.com/video/VFwl1v6YJC2O/, time 4:27]
However the paper doesn't say anything about a pandemic emerging in Asia or likely China. The only part of the paper which even mentions China is a sentence which says that "SARS-CoV emerged in the Guangdong province of southeastern China in late 2002". And the paper doesn't mention anything about wet markets apart from saying that "SARS-CoV was detected in small animals like civets and raccoon dogs that were present in live-animal markets". And the paper doesn't say that there would be a global pandemic caused by a coronavirus that came from a bat or camel, but it just described the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.
The paper was about an antiviral drug that was proposed as a treatment for emerging betacoronaviruses in humans, so it made sense for the authors to provide an overview of previous human epidemics that were caused by a betacoronavirus. And just because the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 shared some features in common with the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and because the authors of the paper described the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, it doesn't mean that the authors were able to predict the COVID pandemic.
People often also say that the virus in the Event 201 scenario came from China or that it originated on a wet market, even though actually it originated on pig farms in Brazil. Or people say that the virus in the Lock Step scenario was a coronavirus or that it originated in China, even though actually it was an influenza virus and its country of origin was not specified.
In the code I linked I calculated the excess deaths by simply calculating the linear trend in deaths in 2013-2019 and I projected the trend to 2020-2022, but actually the long-term trend in deaths is curved upwards due to the aging population, and the code I linked also didn't account for the reduction in population size due to excess deaths since 2020.
Here I used another way to calculate the baseline that adjusts for changes to the population size of each single year of age. For each single year of age up to ages 100+, I calculated the linear trend in deaths divided by population size in 2010-2019, I projected the trend to 2020-2022, and I multiplied the projected trend by the population size of each age to get expected deaths for the age, and I added together the expected deaths for all ages to get the total expected deaths each year. I repeated the same procedure for deaths where the underlying cause was listed as one of 15 drug-related ICD codes, so I assumed that the increasing trend in drug deaths before COVID would've continued into the 2020s. My calculation gave me about 1.3 million total excess deaths in 2020-2022 but only about 65,000 excess deaths from drug overdoses in 2020-2022, so the drug deaths accounted for only about 5% of all excess deaths in 2020-2022:
When you have estimated the impact of drug deaths on total excess deaths during COVID, you have used the number of drug deaths in either the year 2019 or 2000 as the baseline. But usually when people calculate excess drug deaths during COVID, the prepandemic trend in mortality is assumed to continue during COVID, which also includes the assumption that the increasing trend in drug overdose deaths before COVID would've continued into the 2020s.
For example in the CDC's dataset for excess deaths associated with COVID, they use a Farrington surveillance algorithm which assumes that the pre-COVID trend in mortality would've continued into the 2020s: "Counts of deaths in the most recent weeks were compared with historical trends (from 2013 to present) to determine whether the number of deaths in recent weeks was significantly higher than expected, using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). The 'surveillance' package in R (2) was used to implement the Farrington algorithms, which use overdispersed Poisson generalized linear models with spline terms to model trends in counts, accounting for seasonality." (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)
Can we talk about the world bank pandemic emergency financing facility from 2017 which pays nations for coronavirus deaths ? $225m for every 2500 coronavirus deaths as counted by WHO. Incentives define outcomes.
I think you had multiple accounts on Discord, but have you checked your DMs on the account whimsical_otter_34396? I sent you a lot of research on Cottrell's connection to Thomas Schoenberger in November 2023, but you never replied to me. I posted even more research on John Brisson's Discord, but I now started to compile some of it here: sars2.net/yt.html. The following is new information from the same page that I didn't send you earlier:
BTW a connection between George Webb and Bannon is that Lee Stranahan was the "guy who introduced his long-time friend Jason Goodman to George Webb". Lee Stranahan's brother Ken worked for Jason Goodman's company 21st Century 3D. Wikipedia says: "Stranahan met Andrew Breitbart while working on assignment in 2010. The two men soon became friends, and Breitbart converted Stranahan to conservatism, became his mentor, and hired him to work at Breitbart News.[4] Stranahan has also described Steve Bannon, the former executive chairman of Breitbart News, as being his mentor.[7]"
Lee Stranahan previously worked for Sputnik, but he now works with a pro-Russia news site called The Intelligencer which was an offshoot of TNT Radio. A Guardian article about The Intelligencer said: "Most of the site's content appears to be created by Eliason, and Trevor Fitzgibbon, who was the spokesperson for American Values 2024, a Super Pac that supported Robert F Kennedy Jr's presidential campaign. The website has several posts promoting Kennedy's campaign."
Fitzgibbon was previously the main PR guy for Assange, Snowden, and Manning, but currently his clients include Kirsch and VSRF. He also represented Malone and McCullough under the umbrella of VSRF, and he may have been the person who got either or both of them on Joe Rogan. He was also listed as the "managing director" of RFK's American Values 24 PAC.
When Malone sued the Breggins and Jane Ruby for defamation for 25 million USD, he was represented by Steven Biss. Biss previously represented Robert David Steele when RDS sued Jason Goodman for defamation for 24 million USD. In 2018 Biss also represented Trevor Fitzgibbon when Fitzgibbon sued Snowden's lawyer Jesselyn Radack for defamation because of her tweets. Steven Biss's wife Tanya Biss said about Schoenberger that "I HAVE KNOWN THOMAS FOR YEARS AND HE WORKS FOR ME". In 2017 Fitzgibbon started working with Thomas Schoenberger's cyber harrassment company ShadowBox which was funded by Tanya Biss.
Steve Outtrim wrote: "Tanya wanted Thomas Schoenberger to come out and live on her farm as well as Mindy (...). Mindy claims that Tanya had a strategy to overtake the local government by placing operatives friendly to her in official positions. This seems straight out of the playbook of the CIA-connected group The Finders who also operated out of a farm in rural Virginia." So I checked where the farm operated by the Finders cult was located. But they had two farms that were both in Madison County, which is the same county where Robert Malone's horse farm is located, even though the population of the county is only about 14,000. Neither farm is very close to Malone's farm however.
Mark still pushing DEFUSE is not real, when FOIA documents from USGS (one of the submission organizations) shows pre-submission versions, with emails and author comments, for the express purpose of submitting to DARPA.
There is your digital chain of custody Mark, are you going to edit your Substack and videos accordingly to include this critical piece of information? Or you still going to keep lying by omission?
At time 21:53 in the part two video, you said: "There was no way to look at all the excess deaths in the United States relative to what their baseline supposedly was, and have that not include the drug overdoses." However I demonstrated one obvious way to do it here: sars2.net/rootclaim.html#Table_of_excess_deaths_by_cause. I first calculated excess deaths from all causes relative to the pre-COVID trend, and then I subtracted excess deaths with underlying cause drug overdose relative to the pre-COVID trend. Drug deaths accounted for about 3% of all excess deaths in 2020, 4% in 2021, and 6% in 2022.
You have also been saying that the only reason why the US life expectancy has gone down since 2020 are deaths from drug overdoses. However based on my calculation the US life expectancy dropped for about 2.4 years between 2019 and 2021, but drug overdose deaths accounted for only about 12% of the reduction in life expectancy: sars2.net/nopandemic2.html#Housatonic_Effect_of_drug_overdose_deaths_on_US_life_expectancy_since_2020. The way I calculated the percentage accounted by drug overdose deaths was that I replaced the number of drug overdose deaths for each age in 2021 with the number of deaths for the same age in 2019.
---
In the part two video you also brought up the paper from 2019 by Sina Bavari and Baric's postdoc student Alison Totura: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30849247/. However I think you have been mischaracterizing the paper, because in another video where you discussed the paper in more detail, you said: "We should see that Ralph Baric's last postdoc student actually co-authored a document called 'Broad-spectrum coronavirus antiviral drug discovery', which was published in early 2019, which actually says very specifically that GS-5734 from Gilead - Remdesivir - is the most likely thing to work against a novel coronavirus that causes a global pandemic spilling out of Asia, probably China via a wet market after jumping off of a bat or camel. This document is the smoking gun of the entire pandemic." [https://www.bitchute.com/video/VFwl1v6YJC2O/, time 4:27]
However the paper doesn't say anything about a pandemic emerging in Asia or likely China. The only part of the paper which even mentions China is a sentence which says that "SARS-CoV emerged in the Guangdong province of southeastern China in late 2002". And the paper doesn't mention anything about wet markets apart from saying that "SARS-CoV was detected in small animals like civets and raccoon dogs that were present in live-animal markets". And the paper doesn't say that there would be a global pandemic caused by a coronavirus that came from a bat or camel, but it just described the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.
The paper was about an antiviral drug that was proposed as a treatment for emerging betacoronaviruses in humans, so it made sense for the authors to provide an overview of previous human epidemics that were caused by a betacoronavirus. And just because the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 shared some features in common with the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, and because the authors of the paper described the official story about the origins of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, it doesn't mean that the authors were able to predict the COVID pandemic.
People often also say that the virus in the Event 201 scenario came from China or that it originated on a wet market, even though actually it originated on pig farms in Brazil. Or people say that the virus in the Lock Step scenario was a coronavirus or that it originated in China, even though actually it was an influenza virus and its country of origin was not specified.
In the code I linked I calculated the excess deaths by simply calculating the linear trend in deaths in 2013-2019 and I projected the trend to 2020-2022, but actually the long-term trend in deaths is curved upwards due to the aging population, and the code I linked also didn't account for the reduction in population size due to excess deaths since 2020.
Here I used another way to calculate the baseline that adjusts for changes to the population size of each single year of age. For each single year of age up to ages 100+, I calculated the linear trend in deaths divided by population size in 2010-2019, I projected the trend to 2020-2022, and I multiplied the projected trend by the population size of each age to get expected deaths for the age, and I added together the expected deaths for all ages to get the total expected deaths each year. I repeated the same procedure for deaths where the underlying cause was listed as one of 15 drug-related ICD codes, so I assumed that the increasing trend in drug deaths before COVID would've continued into the 2020s. My calculation gave me about 1.3 million total excess deaths in 2020-2022 but only about 65,000 excess deaths from drug overdoses in 2020-2022, so the drug deaths accounted for only about 5% of all excess deaths in 2020-2022:
> v=fread("curl -Ls sars2.net/f/vital.csv.xz|xz -dc") # NVSS data used by CDC WONDER
> pop=fread("http://sars2.net/f/uspopdead.csv")
> a=rbind(cbind(v,type="all"),v[cause%like%"X4[0-4]|X6[0-4]|Y1[0-4]"][,type:="drug"])
> a=a[year>=2010,.(dead=sum(ucd)),.(age=pmin(age,100),year,type)]
> a=merge(pop[,dead:=NULL],a)
> a=merge(a[year%in%2010:2019,.(year=unique(a$year),base=predict(lm(dead/pop~year),.(year=unique(a$year)))),.(type,age)],a)
> o=a[,.(sum(dead)-sum(base*pop)),.(type,year)][,dcast(.SD,year~type)]
> print(o[year>=2020][,drugpct:=drug/all*100][],r=F)
year all drug drugpct
2020 470482 15310 3.254
2021 517250 26199 5.065
2022 287664 23350 8.117
When you have estimated the impact of drug deaths on total excess deaths during COVID, you have used the number of drug deaths in either the year 2019 or 2000 as the baseline. But usually when people calculate excess drug deaths during COVID, the prepandemic trend in mortality is assumed to continue during COVID, which also includes the assumption that the increasing trend in drug overdose deaths before COVID would've continued into the 2020s.
For example in the CDC's dataset for excess deaths associated with COVID, they use a Farrington surveillance algorithm which assumes that the pre-COVID trend in mortality would've continued into the 2020s: "Counts of deaths in the most recent weeks were compared with historical trends (from 2013 to present) to determine whether the number of deaths in recent weeks was significantly higher than expected, using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). The 'surveillance' package in R (2) was used to implement the Farrington algorithms, which use overdispersed Poisson generalized linear models with spline terms to model trends in counts, accounting for seasonality." (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)
Can we talk about the world bank pandemic emergency financing facility from 2017 which pays nations for coronavirus deaths ? $225m for every 2500 coronavirus deaths as counted by WHO. Incentives define outcomes.
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/f355aa56988e258a350942240872e3c5-0240012017/original/PEF-Final-Prospectus-PEF.pdf
The snapshot of the paper by Darrell Ricke and Malone you were looking at was from January 5th 2023 and not January 5th 2020. In your screenshot the year 2023 is highlighted in the menu for picking the year: https://rumble.com/v5nbv7n-robert-malone-and-darrell-rickie-writing-first-cv19-antibody-ade-paper-in-2.html?start=2427, https://sites.google.com/housatonicits.com/home0008/research/darrell-orlyn-ricke-b1959. And the pattern of snapshots in your screenshot matches the current pattern for the year 2023 and not 2020: http://web.archive.org/web/*/https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3546070.
---
I think you had multiple accounts on Discord, but have you checked your DMs on the account whimsical_otter_34396? I sent you a lot of research on Cottrell's connection to Thomas Schoenberger in November 2023, but you never replied to me. I posted even more research on John Brisson's Discord, but I now started to compile some of it here: sars2.net/yt.html. The following is new information from the same page that I didn't send you earlier:
BTW a connection between George Webb and Bannon is that Lee Stranahan was the "guy who introduced his long-time friend Jason Goodman to George Webb". Lee Stranahan's brother Ken worked for Jason Goodman's company 21st Century 3D. Wikipedia says: "Stranahan met Andrew Breitbart while working on assignment in 2010. The two men soon became friends, and Breitbart converted Stranahan to conservatism, became his mentor, and hired him to work at Breitbart News.[4] Stranahan has also described Steve Bannon, the former executive chairman of Breitbart News, as being his mentor.[7]"
Lee Stranahan previously worked for Sputnik, but he now works with a pro-Russia news site called The Intelligencer which was an offshoot of TNT Radio. A Guardian article about The Intelligencer said: "Most of the site's content appears to be created by Eliason, and Trevor Fitzgibbon, who was the spokesperson for American Values 2024, a Super Pac that supported Robert F Kennedy Jr's presidential campaign. The website has several posts promoting Kennedy's campaign."
Fitzgibbon was previously the main PR guy for Assange, Snowden, and Manning, but currently his clients include Kirsch and VSRF. He also represented Malone and McCullough under the umbrella of VSRF, and he may have been the person who got either or both of them on Joe Rogan. He was also listed as the "managing director" of RFK's American Values 24 PAC.
When Malone sued the Breggins and Jane Ruby for defamation for 25 million USD, he was represented by Steven Biss. Biss previously represented Robert David Steele when RDS sued Jason Goodman for defamation for 24 million USD. In 2018 Biss also represented Trevor Fitzgibbon when Fitzgibbon sued Snowden's lawyer Jesselyn Radack for defamation because of her tweets. Steven Biss's wife Tanya Biss said about Schoenberger that "I HAVE KNOWN THOMAS FOR YEARS AND HE WORKS FOR ME". In 2017 Fitzgibbon started working with Thomas Schoenberger's cyber harrassment company ShadowBox which was funded by Tanya Biss.
Steve Outtrim wrote: "Tanya wanted Thomas Schoenberger to come out and live on her farm as well as Mindy (...). Mindy claims that Tanya had a strategy to overtake the local government by placing operatives friendly to her in official positions. This seems straight out of the playbook of the CIA-connected group The Finders who also operated out of a farm in rural Virginia." So I checked where the farm operated by the Finders cult was located. But they had two farms that were both in Madison County, which is the same county where Robert Malone's horse farm is located, even though the population of the county is only about 14,000. Neither farm is very close to Malone's farm however.
Mark still pushing DEFUSE is not real, when FOIA documents from USGS (one of the submission organizations) shows pre-submission versions, with emails and author comments, for the express purpose of submitting to DARPA.
https://archive.org/details/2021-006245-combined-records-redacted/page/n1205/mode/2up
There is your digital chain of custody Mark, are you going to edit your Substack and videos accordingly to include this critical piece of information? Or you still going to keep lying by omission?